Osservatorio | September 2026
War, Strong Growth and Low Unemployment Push Interest Rates Higher.
At a glance:
The shift in the economic landscape has pushed up the cost of money in two distinct waves.
The latest rise in rates reflects the growing persistence of commodity price inflation, which is increasing the risk of higher input costs being passed on to final consumer prices.
Economic growth has proved more resilient than expected and continues to accelerate, reducing the need for supportive monetary policies.
Meanwhile, low unemployment has given central banks greater scope to focus on containing inflation.
High levels of public debt and borrowing linked to investment in artificial intelligence had long been anticipated and were not the primary drivers of higher interest rates.
In the United States, a large share of GDP growth has accrued to corporate profits rather than wages, although consumers have benefited from rising equity valuations.
Record profits and wage pressures point to a widening gap between the returns to capital and labour, driven by artificial intelligence and the increasing market power of large companies, with significant implications for consumption and long-term economic growth.
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