Osservatorio | September 2025
End of summer brings surprises for the economy and markets.
At a glance:
Economic and policy news have reshaped the outlook, improving it but also introducing new risks.
In the U.S., job creation has almost stalled, yet GDP and household and business demand are advancing at a strong pace.
Between the braking force of the labor market and the driving force of production, investment, and consumption, the latter tends to prevail—but downside risks remain due to the lack of immigrant workers, mass layoffs of federal employees, and low confidence.
Qualitative indicators (PMIs) of activity and orders signal a global acceleration, including in the United States.
The Eurozone is holding up well against the blows of tariffs, a stronger euro, expensive energy, the shift to electric vehicles, and the winds of war.
The French public debt crisis is pushing long-term rates higher, also because debt positions are worsening across major countries (except Italy, where they were already precarious).
Inflation is falling everywhere except in the U.S., where tariffs are starting to be passed on to consumers. Labor costs are decelerating, though still at a faster pace than in 2019.
A more accommodative Fed policy to meet Trump’s demands would weaken the dollar.
Stock markets are hitting record highs on expectations of lower rates and continued growth.
The long rally in gold is set to continue, as it has regained its role as a true safe-haven currency—one that central banks are also turning to for reserve diversification.
This document is available in Italian only