Osservatorio | October 2026
Stronger growth and sustained inflation point to higher interest rates.
At a glance:
At the beginning of autumn, global growth accelerated further. All major economic regions are participating in this acceleration, albeit at different speeds.
Both the manufacturing and services sectors are contributing to this broadly synchronized expansion.
The sharp increase in output is being accompanied by the strongest rise in total new orders since February 2022, while growth in export orders has reached its highest level since July 2021.
A major investment supercycle is underway, driven by artificial intelligence, renewable energy, infrastructure, defence, climate change mitigation, robotics and space-related activities.
Inflation has also resumed its upward trajectory, propelled by higher energy commodity prices (oil and gas) and food costs. Early signs suggest that these pressures are beginning to spill over into core inflation.
Stronger growth and rising inflation point to higher interest rates, a trend also supported by tighter monetary policies, substantial bond issuance, elevated and increasing public debt levels, and exceptionally high uncertainty.
Views from the Managers: The managers we met during our latest research trip to New York (representing approximately USD 220 billion in assets under management) remain constructive on the outlook. However, they have reduced their exposure to the AI value chain and diversified their portfolios into other sectors.
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