Osservatorio | November 2025
Investment choices between a challenging landscape and technological highways
At a glance:
The economic outlook is more complex than the one that followed the Great Financial Crisis (2008) and the pandemic (2020), because economic policies offer little help—if not outright obstacles.
Central banks have almost exhausted their room for easing and remain cautiously on hold, especially the Fed. The ECB has already pushed short-term real rates into negative territory.
Fiscal policies are restrictive, either to cut deficits (Italy and other European countries) or to change their composition (U.S.). Germany is the exception: infrastructure and defense investments are fueling growth.
The blunt weapon of tariffs has been dusted off, raising uncertainty and making households and businesses more cautious.
Unemployment and inflation are—and will remain—low (in the U.S., the impact of tariffs on prices still needs to play out). Within the Eurozone, inflation gaps lower real rates for faster-growing countries (Spain) and raise them for slower-growing ones (France, Italy).
The digital and green transitions are twin forces that reinforce each other. Together with rearmament, they form three highways for financial investment. Health science is a fourth.
The dollar remains fragile, and gold can benefit from this weakness. In any case, prudence—in the form of equity portfolio protection—is advisable.
Views from the managers: From meetings with Asian asset managers, AI confirms itself as the main driver of market performance. China aims to develop domestic technology as a strategic priority, while Korea and Japan benefit from semiconductor demand, and India seeks to revive growth through fiscal and monetary policies.
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