Osservatorio | March 2026
Investors are donning their helmets as they brace for the uncertainty brought by the war
At a glance:
Equity markets reacted in a measured and contained fashion. The sharpest pullbacks were seen in those markets that had rallied the most, though they remain in positive territory year‑to‑date.
The uncertainty over the timing and outcome of the Israel–US–Iran conflict has piled on top of already heightened concerns about the impact of artificial intelligence on a wide range of activities and businesses.
This oil shock is unlikely to trigger a wages–prices spiral, as the labour market is far weaker than it was fifty or even five years ago.
The rise in long-term yields should be read as a trimming of risk exposure, with investors selling securities whose longer duration implies heightened volatility.
Even gold’s lacklustre performance suggests limited fear of an inflation flare‑up.
The dollar has regained some shine, though it is more a matter of reflected light than genuine strength.
Views from the managers: the week in the US confirms AI as the dominant macro force at play, alongside a widespread perception that Middle Eastern tensions will prove temporary and have only a modest impact on the broader economic outlook
This document is available in Italian only