Osservatorio | May 2026
Markets swing between war and AI: Trump has the final say
At a glance:
The latest decline in equity and bond prices stems from the resilience of global growth, which leaves room for central banks to raise interest rates in response to higher-than-expected inflation and the Iran–US stalemate.
However, there are differences between Europe, the US, and Asia: energy fragility in the first, wage bill reductions in the second, and the need to normalize rates in the third—represented here by Japan.
The AI revolution sees the Asian supply chain playing a co-leading role alongside major American companies, both as a provider of essential raw materials and components and for its own capacity to invest and innovate. The South Korean case is instructive.
The global and sectoral breadth of AI is extending the life of the current boom.
The greatest risk (and it is a significant one!) lies in a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz: it is up to the US President to choose the lesser evil for his administration.
Switzerland stands out as an island of stability in a stormy sea for investors: the characteristics and advantages of the Swiss stock exchange.
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