Osservatorio | June 2025
The economy holds firm. Cracks appear in currencies and long-term rates.
At a glance:
The four pillars of the new U.S. economic policy (tariffs, tax cuts, reduced immigration, fewer regulations) are creating turbulence and confusion.
American consumption and employment are holding up. However, the number of new jobs has been revised sharply downward.
The impact of higher tariffs on U.S. prices has not yet materialized, thanks to early ordering and stockpiling strategies.
Elsewhere, there are signs of a slowdown, as markets await the effects of Chinese and German stimulus measures. India is surging ahead, and Italy is improving compared to its European peers.
The dollar is weakening, and high long-term rates signal concerns about the growing U.S. public debt.
The Fed is forced to stay on the sidelines, while the ECB may cut rates further—along with other central banks—thanks to retreating inflation. Equity markets are at record highs and extremely volatile.
Recession has entered and exited economists’ radar screens with unprecedented speed.
Reflections by Chiara Casale, Economist at Ceresio Investors, on the rapid pace of change in today’s economic environment.
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