Osservatorio | June 2026
The agreement between Iran and the US reduces market volatility. Concerns remain over AI.
At a glance:
The long-awaited agreement now in place removes a major source of volatility in equity, commodity and interest rate markets. Memories of the “.com” bubble are fuelling investor caution and a heightened focus on the financials and outlook of all companies involved in the AI value chain.
Central banks are now likely to hold steady, finding in the agreement a strong reason to wait for Gulf War–related inflation to subside as the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
The backdrop of fundamentals has deteriorated over the past month due to rising costs and uncertainty. It will gradually improve again, benefiting Europe and services, while megatrends (AI, rearmament, the green transition) continue to support manufacturing.
The US is benefiting from demand for hospitality and dining driven by the Football World Cup. China and India have accelerated.
The buoyancy in equity investment is made rational by the speed at which the current technological revolution is unfolding and by the vigilance of analysts and asset managers.
Gold is behaving like a risk asset rather than as a last-resort anchor against monetary and currency risks.
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