Osservatorio | January 2026

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At a glance:

The business card of 2026 is that of a record-setting year. New highs have been reached in equity markets and precious metals. More importantly, geopolitical upheavals are increasingly frequent (Venezuela, Iran, Greenland), and relations between the US and Europe have never been so tense.

Japan is emerging as a leading player, thanks to the strong performance of its stock market, an economy that continues to grow, and inflation holding at normal levels (3%), whereas in the past it quickly returned to deflation. The yen has continued to weaken despite the narrowing interest-rate gap with the US. This is not entirely new, and this time it reflects the Bank of Japan’s intention to gradually normalize the cost of money while softening the impact on the economy.

The global scenario remains one of solid recovery with inflation under control.

In the US, GDP is growing at “Chinese” rates due to swings in net exports caused by uncertainty around tariffs. Consumer spending and private investment are healthy, and a glimmer of consumer confidence is returning.

India is slowing slightly, China is consolidating its progress, and across the rest of Asia there are signs of a manufacturing rebound. The Eurozone is advancing at a moderate pace.

Behind the high prices of equities and non-ferrous metals (gold, silver, copper) lie the fundamentals of the expansion of digital and green technologies, which are causing demand to outpace supply. Meanwhile, the yellow metal is becoming the real reserve currency amid the decline of the US dollar, as confirmed by the market movements following Trump’s renewed threats to use tariffs against Europe as leverage in negotiations over Greenland.

Global trade grew strongly in 2025. Tariffs triggered large flows of goods both to anticipate their implementation and to adjust value chains to the new trade barriers. China was particularly quick and adept at redirecting its exports.

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