Osservatorio | February 2026
The dual AI risk casts a shadow over an otherwise solid and healthy growth outlook
At a glance:
Positive macro scenario: global growth is improving (especially in the US, Japan, and India) and inflation is declining across major economies, creating favorable conditions for risk assets.
A two‑speed Europe: the Eurozone is slowing overall, but Germany and Italy are accelerating, supported by public investment in defense and infrastructure; encouraging signals are also coming from the UK.
Rates moving toward convergence: the Fed is approaching the end of its cutting cycle, the ECB is essentially on hold, and Japan is moving toward upward normalization; this implies a weakening dollar. Consumer confidence remains uneven: recovering in Europe, more fragile in the US due to political factors and concerns about the labor market, influenced by federal shutdowns.
AI as a new unexpected risk: the acceleration of Artificial Intelligence is generating competitive pressure across many sectors (software, professional services, wealth management) and raising questions about the returns on massive data‑center investments.
Shock in semiconductors: strong AI‑driven demand is creating supply bottlenecks, which in turn are pushing chip prices higher. This is compressing margins for many hardware and automotive manufacturers and contributing to increased market volatility.
European equities: from hope to fundamentals: after the optimism‑driven rally of 2025, further gains in 2026 will require real growth in orders, revenues, and earnings, with potential upside especially for Europe’s cyclical industries that remain underutilized and undervalued.
This document is available in Italian only