Osservatorio | December 2025
2026: The Fundamentals That Guide Investments
At a glance:
In portfolio strategies, solid growth and contained inflation favor equities.
Risks lie in the Artificial Intelligence boom and the tug-of-war in the U.S. between GDP growth and employment stagnation. It is advisable to remain vigilant for the succession of black swans.
Recovery remains strong in the United States and is gaining breadth and speed in the Euro area.
More than half of the increase in global demand and activity comes from the three major Asian economies. Together with other Far Eastern countries, they are an important component of any equity allocation.
Short-term rates from the Fed and the Bank of England still have room to fall, those of the Bank of Japan will move upward, while for the ECB it is easier to stay put.
Long-term yields have risen for many reasons, including curve normalization and higher public debt issuance.
The dollar remains weak, and gold is an alternative.
Copper demand is finding new strong momentum in the construction of data centers and in renewable energy production parks and distribution networks. Supply, however, struggles to expand.
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