Osservatorio | December 2024
Plenty of confirmations and a few surprises in the outlook for the year ahead. And what if peace were to break out?
In the U.S., the stock market’s sparkle overshadows bottom-tier social and health indicators.
At a glance:
Current trends are set to extend into the early months of the new year.
The U.S. economy is running at full speed, powered by the wages-and-consumption duo.
There’s little reason to fear this engine will stall, as households still hold substantial savings.
Piecing together the Eurozone economy is no easy task—due to structural issues and the absence of two key ‘repairmen,’ with France and Germany weakened politically.
In the rest of the world—now economically and politically outweighing what we call advanced nations—India is making rapid strides, while China shows signs of awakening.
Manufacturing is seeing early shoots of recovery.
Inflation will struggle to fall further, as wage pressures persist.
Official rates still have plenty of room to decline.
On currencies: the dollar is climbing. Will the Swiss franc remain stuck?
Equities are benefiting from lower borrowing costs and profits set to hit new records. The golden year for gold will be hard to repeat.
A major breakthrough would be peace—possible under strong U.S. pressure (less money and arms for belligerents), with Europe standing to gain the most.
While the U.S. wins hands down on equity returns, it ranks near the bottom for life expectancy, homicide rates, infant and maternal mortality—the other side of American exceptionalism.
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