Osservatorio | April 2026
The damage caused by war lingers in the real economy, while stock markets look beyond it.
At a glance:
Both the economy and financial markets are affected by the erratic course of the Iran–US conflict.
The recovery of demand and supply for goods and services will in any case face the constraint of limited commercial shipping capacity.
A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would also extend the repercussions of difficulties in sourcing raw materials and semi‑finished goods, weighing on company revenues and profit margins.
Services are currently suffering more than manufacturing. Travel, transport and recreational spending are being hit by higher prices and declining confidence, as well as by the loss of destinations along the Persian Gulf.
The acceleration in inflation is temporary, given the persistence of muted wage pressures.
Equity markets have experienced heart‑stopping swings: the losses recorded in March were recovered in the first half of April. High volatility has become a structural feature in an era of political instability, but equities continue to benefit from mega‑trends.
The dollar has regained some shine, but it is reflected light rather than genuine strength.
Views from the managers: The trip to Asia has reinforced the conviction that managers in the region have a strong ability both to rapidly re‑orient portfolios in response to the international environment and to select the most promising companies, particularly in the upstream segments of the artificial intelligence value chain. This document is available in Italian only