Osservatorio | April 2025
Trump’s earthquake shocks push toward recession.
At a glance:
The super tariffs imposed and then suspended are reshaping the map of global trade.
The enormous uncertainty—more than double compared to 2020—puts investment and consumption decisions on hold.
Companies fear order cancellations, and households worry about rising unemployment.
Current stock prices do not factor in a recession.
The collapse in equity and bond prices has increased the cost of capital and reduced financial wealth.
The asymmetric effect of tariffs remains negative.
Economic policies have varying degrees of room for maneuver across countries, but far more limited than in the other two major crises of the century.
The dollar’s throne as a safe-haven currency is wobbling.
U.S. fund managers, interviewed during the regular trip to the States, believe uncertainty has risen sharply, with a strong risk of higher inflation and lower growth (stagflation), while doubts have grown about the return on rising investments in artificial intelligence infrastructure.
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