Osservatorio | September 2024
Recession: Yes or No? Market Uncertainty vs. Data Reality — While China Stalls.
at a glance:
Market fears of a sharp deterioration in U.S. growth are dispelled by strong signals from the labor market and consumer spending.
Europe’s weakness is tied to Germany’s struggles: the country is grappling with the shift to electric vehicles and the reshaping of globalization.
In Asia, growth is passing the baton from China (see below) to India, which is emerging as a new global industrial hub. Japan is performing well.
Everywhere, manufacturing is feeling the pinch of monetary tightening, while services benefit from consumers’ strong appetite for travel and entertainment.
In the tug-of-war between advancing services and slowing manufacturing, the outlook favors the former.
The ongoing decline in inflation—now in its final stages—is giving fresh momentum to real wages.
U.S. presidential elections loom large over the global outlook.
A rapid reduction in interest rates will boost demand for durable goods and construction.
China is once again flooding global markets with excess production. With domestic demand dampened by recent policies, it risks falling into the ‘middle-income trap
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