Osservatorio | October 2025
The AI boom is driving U.S. growth—but is it sustainable?
At a glance:
The global uncertainty index hit new record highs this summer, and Trump’s announcement of additional tariffs on Chinese goods will push it even higher.
It’s a negotiating tactic ahead of the China–U.S. agreement to be signed at the end of the month in South Korea, but it further erodes the already low confidence of households and businesses.
American consumers fear higher unemployment and inflation, and the labor market has stopped feeding their income growth. They have kept spending by drawing on savings accumulated during the pandemic.
AI investments are adding one percentage point to U.S. growth in 2025. Many are increasingly speaking openly about a bubble and capital that will not be repaid by adequate profits. So far, however, Big Tech has not disappointed expectations for rising earnings.
Global output has accelerated, driven by services and with manufacturing returning to expansion.
France has become the black sheep of the Eurozone, combining low growth with high public deficits—and markets are punishing it. Italy is holding up thanks to the NRRP and prudent fiscal management.
Gold’s strength reflects global tensions and the erosion of U.S. leadership.
Views from the managers: After a week of meetings with our U.S. portfolio managers, strong market optimism emerged, fueled by growth, expansionary policies, and AI innovation—with a focus on opportunities rather than risks.
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