Osservatorio | November 2024
Trump’s arrival brings tariffs and higher public spending, pushing interest rates upward and prolonging Europe’s lag. The dollar strengthens.
At a glance:
In the U.S., Trumponomics initially fuels inflation—by making imported goods more expensive, reducing foreign competition in the domestic market, and tightening labor supply through lower immigration.
Over the longer term, tax cuts could encourage more domestic investment, but both the deficit and public debt are likely to rise from already high levels.
Elsewhere, Trump’s proposed measures put downward pressure on corporate earnings and prices.
These policies will impact a U.S. economy in excellent shape, driven by strong consumer spending and employment, while Europe struggles to avoid recession and temporarily loses Germany’s leadership.
Germany’s election campaign will prioritize national interests über alles, complicating common European policy.
In Asia, India is advancing rapidly, and China shows signs of awakening.
Globally, inflation will continue to ease and consolidate its decline, but won’t disappear as labor market conditions have changed.
This, combined with rising U.S. fiscal deficits, will keep long-term rates elevated, even as the Fed and ECB continue cutting short-term rates.
The dollar benefits from the widening performance gap between the U.S. and the Eurozone.
Stock selection is becoming increasingly selective.
Views from the Managers: A summary of insights and observations gathered during meetings with Ceresio Investors’ portfolio managers on a recent trip to Asia
This document is available in Italian only