Osservatorio | July 2025
On the tariff roller coaster, growth stays on track and rates remain high.
At a glance:
Global economic growth continues, despite the roller coaster of U.S. tariffs, now at 18.7% (not counting the latest two letters signed by Trump).
However, a U.S. slowdown is evident, and overall the pace is moderate.
The manufacturing rebound is surprising, likely linked to the clearing of backlogged orders during the three-month suspension of protectionist measures, which expired on July 9.
Foreign orders keep shrinking, though at a slower pace.
India is the exception, growing at over 6% annually: by the end of the decade, it will match the size of the Eurozone, with a population three times larger.
Interest rates remain divergent between the U.S. and the rest of the world, and between short and long maturities.
The exceptional margins of Big Tech and the acceleration of the digital revolution (powered by AI) are driving profit growth and soaring equity valuations.
Germany has shifted gears in corporate strategies, with many innovations for major industrial groups and promising prospects for mid-sized companies, currently undervalued on the stock market.
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