Osservatorio | February 2025
Global Economy Tested by Trump
At a glance:
2025 has started on the right foot for global growth, while the new U.S. economic policy—like a tornado—is sweeping across the landscape.
Global GDP forecasts have been revised upward, thanks mainly to the strong performance of the U.S., where the wages-and-consumption duo continues to work remarkably well.
January’s U.S. employment and retail sales figures were hit by the deep freeze. February will bring a symmetrical rebound.
The Eurozone suffers from Franco-German weakness, centered in the automotive sector, and awaits the outcome of Germany’s elections. Italy is stagnant, and flat employment since August signals further fragility ahead.
In Asia, China moves forward slowly, while India decelerates from a pace that is still a multiple of Europe’s.
Inflation is trending down gradually, especially in the U.S., where a tight labor market continues to support wage growth.
Rates remain steady in America, fall in Europe, and rise in Japan. Stock markets hit new records on the back of stronger earnings. Gold is buoyed by central bank purchases.
Threatened hikes in tariffs and other trade barriers carry significant destructive potential: if enacted, they could trigger a recessionary spiral. While unlikely, uncertainty over trade policy has reached its peak, discouraging investment and raising risk premiums.
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