Newsletter XXXV

America Votes Amid Unprecedented Polarization: Outlook, Expectations, and the New Congress's Powers

Midterm elections on 3 November are set to deepen political polarization and, if Democrats prevail, usher in a new phase of confrontation between Congress and the presidency. Such stark divisions have not been seen since the late nineteenth century, an era marked by political violence and widespread corruption. The two electorates are increasingly driven by divergent priorities and worldviews. Congress's most powerful tool vis-à-vis the White House remains control over federal spending. Investigations into the administration’s actions would be all but inevitable, yet impeachment would still require a two-thirds majority in the Senate, a threshold that is exceptionally difficult to reach. Growing domestic divisions risk weakening the United States in the face of both longstanding and emerging challenges, while increasing the temptation to turn inward and retreat from global engagement.

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