Newsletter XXXIII

Rearmament is in full swing: the drivers, the figures, the constraints, and the three spillover effects

Europe and the world at large have embarked on the dangerous slippery slope of rising defence spending, following thirty years of a substantial peace dividend. The war in Ukraine and the US disengagement are the immediate drivers, but in the background lie the growing divisions and tensions of a multipolar system. Spending has risen from $1.912 trillion to $2.887 trillion between 2019 and 2024, and is projected to reach $4.704 trillion by 2035. Public budget constraints are becoming tighter due to high levels of public debt and population ageing. Welfare, industrial structures and financial markets will all be affected, with defence equities already having surged.

This document is available in italian only.