Newsletter XXVIII
January 2025
The Demographic Ice Age Has Begun: Data, Causes, and Economic Consequences
For the first time in history, the human population is declining because of the decision not to have children. The global fertility rate is below the replacement threshold, and in 35 countries the population is shrinking, net of migration. Meanwhile, in Africa, it is multiplying three to four times.
The end of hard agricultural labor, longer life expectancy, the pursuit of personal happiness, and extended child-rearing are at the root of falling birth rates.
Major effects include large migratory flows, a decrease in the working-age population, aging societies, and lower innovation and productivity.
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