Food Industry Monitor | 2025

XI EDITION - “Governance Models and Growth Strategies”

• Solid Growth in the Food Sector: +5.9% in 2024, with positive projections for 2025 (+4.6%) and 2026 (+4.4%), driven by domestic consumption and industrial investments.
• Strong Export Expansion: A projected +7.3% in 2025, led by key segments such as wine (over €8 billion in exports), though subject to uncertainty around U.S. customs policies.
• Family Businesses as Key Players: Representing 67% of the sector, they outperform thanks to advanced governance models and shared strategic leadership.

2024 Performance, 2025 Projections, and 2026 Forecasts

In 2024, the sector's revenues grew by 5.9%, confirming performance above the Italian economy, whose national GDP remained at 0.7%. The sector shows solid commercial profitability, with a ROS (Return on Sales) of 5.7% and a ROIC (Return on Invested Capital) of 6.9%—positive values, though slightly down compared to previous years. Financial stability remains high, with a debt ratio (debt to equity) of 1.19.

For 2025, the food sector is expected to maintain its positive trend with a 4.6% growth rate, albeit slightly lower than the previous year. In 2026, revenue growth is projected at +4.4%.

The domestic market is expected to remain stable, supported by positive employment trends, which should stimulate consumption and, consequently, demand for food products. Wage growth remains a key variable for a qualitative leap in domestic consumption. The positive trend in industrial investments confirms that Italian industry—particularly the food sector—is responding to the productivity challenge.

At the segment level, 2025 is expected to see significant growth in: Flour: +9.9%, Coffee: +6.9%, Oil: +6.3%, Frozen foods: +5.6%

export evolution

Exports (in current value at current prices) in the food sector, for the segments analyzed by the FIM (with corresponding ATECO codes), are expected to grow by 7.3% in 2025, slightly below the +8.2% recorded in 2024. Forecasts remain positive for 2026, with an estimated increase of 7%.

Exports from the segments mapped by the Food Industry Monitor have reached €47 billion, with approximately 13% destined for the United States. Wine alone accounts for over €8 billion in exports, with about 30% of that total going to the U.S. market.

Food sector exports (including wine) grew by 5.5% in 2024, marking a strong recovery compared to the -1.6% decline in 2023. However, it is clear that U.S. trade policies on imports could have a significant impact on sales in the American market.

Focus on Family Businesses, Governance, and Performance

For the 11th edition of the Food Industry Monitor, a specific focus was developed on institutional structures and governance models adopted by companies. The food sector continues to be strongly characterized by the presence of family-owned businesses, which represent 67% of the sample analyzed (870 companies). The analysis was also conducted at the segment level. The flour (95%), spirits (83%), oil (82%), and coffee (81%) segments all exceed 80% family ownership. Even in segments with large international players—such as frozen foods, beer, and wine—family businesses remain predominant, albeit with a share slightly above 50%.

Corporate governance varies depending on ownership structure: among family businesses, 75.8% are managed by a Board of Directors, while 24.2% are led by a Sole Director. In non-family businesses, the structure is more formalized, with a clear predominance of Boards of Directors (93.6%) and a marginal presence of Sole Directors (6.4%). In terms of gender composition of boards, family businesses show a female board member share of 24.7%, significantly higher than the 10.1% observed in non-family businesses.

The food sector also shows strong business longevity: 53.3% of family businesses in the sample are led by members of the third generation, while another 36.8% have surpassed the third generation. Only 9.9% are still led by the first or second generation. Segments with a higher presence of first and second-generation companies include: flour, pasta, spirits, and sweets. The most long-standing companies—those beyond the third generation—are found in the beer, oil, flour, and water segments.

From a performance perspective, family businesses tend to outperform non-family firms. Both Return on Invested Capital (ROI) and Return on Equity (ROE) are significantly higher for family-owned companies.

In general, for all companies, more advanced governance models lead to better performance. In particular, the presence of collegial leadership—where responsibilities are distributed among multiple figures—significantly improves performance, with positive effects on key profitability indicators. Even more impactful is the presence of board members who are also shareholders: having shareholder-directors on the board leads to a notable improvement in Return on Assets (ROA). In family businesses, the presence of a family president, who acts as a strategic link between the family and the business, has a significant influence on profitability.

Round table

The conference was introduced and moderated by Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli, Italy correspondent for the Financial Times. Following the institutional greetings from Prof. Nicola Perullo, Rector of the University of Gastronomic Sciences, and Gabriele Corte, General Director of Banca del Ceresio SA, Prof. Carmine Garzia, Scientific Director of the Observatory, presented the results of the latest edition of the Food Industry Monitor, with a focus on growth and exports for the upcoming two years. Unpublished data were shared on ownership structures and governance models in food companies and their impact on performance.

Prof. Michele Fino moderated a panel discussion on the value of “Made in Italy”, featuring Matteo Lunelli, President and CEO of Ferrari Trento, and Guido Repetto, President of Elah Dufour. Silvia Sciorilli Borrelli also moderated the second session of the discussion, dedicated to financial tools for growth and internationalization, with contributions from Maria Luisa Miccolis, Head of SME Sales at SACE, and Alessandro Santini, Head of Corporate & Investment Banking at Ceresio Investors.

As per tradition, the conference concluded with remarks by Carlo Petrini, founder of Slow Food and President of the University of Gastronomic Sciences.

The Food Industry Monitor analyzes the performance of a sample of over 860 companies, with a combined turnover of approximately €87 billion, operating across 15 segments of the food sector. The observatory examines the historical performance of food companies from 2009 to 2024, focusing on the following dimensions: growth, exports, profitability, productivity, and financial structure.

For each segment, two-year forecasts (2025–2026) are developed regarding revenue growth, export trends, and profitability performance.